Construction and Analysis of a Decision Tree-Based Predictive Model for Learning Intervention Advice

ABSTRACT

The rapid development of education informatization has accumulated a large amount of data for learning analytics, and adopting educational data mining to find new patterns of data, develop new algorithms and models, and apply known predictive models to the teaching system to improve learning is the challenge and vision of the education field in the era of big data. Learning intervention, as a core concept of learning analytics, refers to the purposeful and planned adoption of direct or indirect strategies or behaviors based on tracking learning behaviors and integrating information about learners' characteristics to give learners personalized guidance and assistance in order to help learners break through the status quo of learning difficulties and improve their learning abilities, so as to achieve tailored teaching. In this study, data mining was conducted on the performance records of students on math problems in an online learning system, and a learning intervention suggestion prediction model was constructed on the basis of decision tree algorithm using Python, with a view to understanding the effectiveness, willingness, style, and other characteristics of the learners' online learning through the analysis results, providing personalized guidance to students, and enabling teachers to intervene with at-risk students and successfully complete the teaching goals. It was found that the most significant impact of the learning intervention advice provided to learners was the number of hints they sought during the learning process, and that learners who needed to be "intervened" or "monitored" could be categorized into two groups: independent inefficient and dependent inefficient according to the model. Therefore, teachers or adaptive learning systems should intervene in a timely and appropriate way for different types of learning crisis groups to solve the problems of poor learning performance, insufficient commitment to learning, poor learning habits, low participation in learning, low self-efficacy and other problems of learners in different learning scenarios.